WASHINGTON — The federal government on Friday proposed sweeping mandatory water cuts for Arizona, California, and Nevada as part of a new management plan for the drought-stricken Colorado River, a move that could reshape water use across the American Southwest for the next decade.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation proposal, released by the Department of the Interior, would require the three Lower Basin states to collectively reduce their Colorado River water use by up to 3 million acre-feet annually through 2036 — roughly equivalent to the entire combined allocation of Arizona and Nevada, and enough to serve more than 25 million people per year. In the near term, the states face a combined 20 percent reduction over the next two years.
The plan gives the federal government authority to impose cuts of up to 40 percent during the driest years over the next decade. Actual reductions would be reassessed every two years based on reservoir levels and basin-wide conditions.
"The Department has a responsibility to ensure the Colorado River system remains reliable and resilient for the millions of Americans, communities and industries that depend on it," Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a statement.
Why the Cuts Are Necessary
The 1,450-mile Colorado River provides water to more than 40 million people across seven U.S. states, numerous tribal nations, and parts of Mexico. Decades of overuse, compounded by rising temperatures and a prolonged megadrought driven by climate change, have left the river unable to meet the allocations promised in the 1922 Colorado River Compact.
The health of the system is measured largely by water levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two largest reservoirs in the United States. Together, they have fallen to their lowest combined level since they began filling, with bathtub rings of mineral deposits now marking canyon walls dozens of feet above the current waterline. Scientists warn the reservoirs are approaching levels where they could no longer generate hydropower — a scenario known as "dead pool."
A record-dry winter left the reservoirs at a combined record low, intensifying pressure on federal officials to act before existing management guidelines expire at the end of 2026.
How the Cuts Would Work
Under the proposal, California, Arizona, and Nevada would divide half of the required reductions according to a plan the three states had previously developed. Beyond that threshold, longstanding water priority rights would determine how additional cuts are allocated — a system that generally favors California users over those in Arizona and Nevada.
The four Upper Basin states — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming — would not face mandatory cuts under the current proposal, though they could proceed with voluntary conservation measures, primarily among agricultural users. Upper Basin officials had argued that mandatory cuts to their allocations would be illegal under the existing compact.
State Reactions Range From Cautious to Outraged
Reactions from the affected states were sharply divided.
Arizona officials, who hold the lowest priority water rights in the Lower Basin, called the proposal deeply flawed. The Arizona Department of Water Resources warned the cuts would "devastate" the state's water users and economy. The Central Arizona Project, which delivers Colorado River water to metro Phoenix and Tucson, said the proposal fails to accurately reflect the state's water rights.
Nevada officials were even more critical, calling the proposed reductions "unrealistic and devastating."
California struck a more measured tone. State leaders described the plan as an important milestone but emphasized it is "not the finish line."
The Upper Basin governors offered a cautiously favorable initial assessment. "We are encouraged that new operating guidelines will better reflect existing water supply which must underpin any practicable plan going forward," the four governors said in a joint statement, while noting they were still reviewing the document.
What Comes Next
The proposal arrives after years of deadlocked negotiations among the seven basin states, with threats of lawsuits looming if federal officials did not comply with century-old water laws. Because the states failed to reach a consensus, the federal government stepped in with its own binding framework.
Federal officials are expected to finalize the proposal in the coming days. The states will have input on how they shoulder the reductions, though the government is expected to offer specific implementation guidance shortly.
Experts warn the cuts will ripple through the Southwest economy. Arizona Department of Water Resources director Tom Buschatzke acknowledged the reductions will be painful, with potential impacts on agriculture — including winter vegetable farming in Yuma, Arizona, and Southern California's Imperial Valley, which together produce the majority of North America's leafy greens in winter.
Cities are likely to keep taps running, but water rates are expected to climb. "We are not running out of water. We're running out of cheap water," said Rhett Larson, a water law professor at Arizona State University.
The plan marks a pivotal moment for the Colorado River, forcing the Southwest to confront a future in which one of its most vital resources can no longer be taken for granted.
